A Canadian In New York

I just finished watching the Carney interview on The Daily Show. I have to say I am actually surprised at how well spoken and likeable he is. Partly because I have never actually seen this man speak publicly before but also because I otherwise just can't see anybody with this much potential really line up to captain the Titanic.

When I speak of potential I mean purely within the context of his party. Compared to the last time the Liberals had a leadership crisis where we got Michael Ignatieff and Stephen Dione he appears to be much more likable.

(He is still a banker and the loud PFFFFTTBLBLBLB noise I made when he called himself an outsider in the interview probably shook the walls.)

Besides this, there is the decision to make his official announcement as a leadership candidate on an American political program. It is absolutely because The Daily Show has more reach than any current Canadian media. However, I choose to see this as an indictment more of our media landscape and not of Carney.

Sadly I think it still ends up being used against him in a way that will definitely make a dent. Sure, we could highlight the problems that made it "necessary" but the emotional impact of "He can't even be bothered to appear on Canadian media" should not be understated.

The NDP

The NDP are going to really hammer home the point that he is a banker (who was appointed to the Bank of Canada by none other than Stephen Harper) and try to frame him as representative of all the problems with our country. It could even work if Jagmeet Singh wasn't the leader of the NDP.

The NDP are unfortunately stuck with Singh or are unable to believe how poorly he's seen in the voter's eyes. All signs show that they are likely to continue their campaign for an all out majority. Which is genuinely deranged given how our current political climate has been shifting to minority governments for years. The current polling notwithstanding.

The CPC

The CPC's line will probably match the NDP, but in a much dumber, nastier, completely disingenuous fashion. While also shouting the most obnoxious slogans like Carbon Tax Carney. They can't really paint him with the Trudeau brush, but I bet that won't stop them from trying either.

They could only currently win a huge majority if the election is held immediately. Especially if they were to run against Trudeau and Singh.

The thing is that Pollievre is a deeply unlikable puke. There are countless anecdotes from Ottawa detailing just how obnoxious and ambitious he is. I do not believe for a second that a CPC party lead by him would stay ahead against parties with different leaders for long in a normal campaign cycle.

Going forward

I think just not being Pollievre would definitely benefit Carney to some extent. He's certainly a lot nicer to listen to. No breathless grandiose posturing like Trudeau nor does he make you want to pour hot acid into your ears like Pollievre.

Regardless of who wins, they need to be able to communicate their plan in a way that is emotional and sincere. Broad strokes grounded in real policy. Sadly I think they'll probably just try to attach Pollievre to Trump as hard as possible, while Jagmeet flounders helplessly as is typical.

My outside hope is that somebody can bend Singh's ear and try and talk some actual political sense into him because he clearly has none of his own. Somebody that can convince him to back off the all-or-nothing language and at least be open to the chance of working in a minority situation.

I get the impression that Carney is wise to this as well. If I were him I would find a way to let Singh come to the table while saving as much face as possible.

Closing

Since our politics is always taking cues from the US, usually for worse, I'm hoping the Liberals can learn a lesson where the Democrats didn't. Despite all of the GOP's culture war bullshit and absolute insanity they still squeaked out a win. The party shrieking about immigrants eating cats and government conspiracies to murder squirrels! They won but not because the voters were genuinely worried about trans people in bathrooms, not because of immigrants or anything else. They all simply believed that Trump was going to do "something" about the economy.

The Liberals should take heed, and avoid the trap of fighting the CPC on their culture war nonsense and instead campaign on believable straightforward policy.